Simulation Notes Europe, Volume 27(2), June 2017

Assessment of Influencing Factors in Decentralized Energy Supply of Manufacturing Industries Using Probabilistic Methods

Simulation Notes Europe SNE 27(2), 2017, 67-76
DOI: 10.11128/sne.27.tn.10372

Abstract

Plastics industry is the ninth largest electrical energy consuming sector in Germany. Currently, the production including the melting of plastic is electricity based although decentralized energy supply concepts using CHP units and thermal energy for melting and cooling exist. This research analyses the influencing factors ‘production plan’ and ‘ambient temperature’. For both parameters, the influence on the decentralized energy concept and the status quo is compared. Therefore real data is used to parameter-ize probabilistic density functions. The system’s behaviour by means of varying input profiles is evaluated using Monte-Carlo simulation. The results show that the influence of the production plan is stronger than the influence of the ambient temperature. Moreover the influence increases for the decentralized energy supply scenario.