Abstract

In Austria, especially among children, the prevalence of obesity has increased since 1999. Therefore, a System Dynamics model, simulating the prevalence of obesity, has been developed. The modular architecture allows separate analysis of the model parts and also adding and connect-ing different modules, like for example a cost module or a module for an obesity-related disease to the existing population model and the disease model of obesity. Three interventions, treating obesity with an increase in caloric expenditure and/or a reduction of caloric intake, are tested, analysed and compared. The results show that a reduction of caloric intake reduces the prevalence of obesity and overweight until 2050 (intervention 1). Furthermore, a reduction for the doubled amount of kilocalories per day doesn’t have the doubled effect on the reduction of the prevalence (intervention 2 compared to 1). Last, but not least, intervention 3 compared to intervention 2 shows that physical activity together with a reduction of caloric intake reduces the prevalence much more than a single reduction of caloric intake in the amount of kilocalories due to physi-cal activity and eating less together.